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Archive for February 4th, 2008

UK house price growth highest

Posted by hasnain on 4 February, 2008

he UK has come top of a long-term house price table of leading industrialised nations when it comes to price growth.

Swiss institution the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) surveyed 18 countries in its Real House Price survey, which showed that between 1970 and 2006 UK Property had the highest average rate of price inflation at 4.14 per cent, Finfacts reports.

The second highest figure was in Spain (3.95 per cent), with Ireland third on 3.9 per cent and Belgium fourth on 3.58 per cent.

While this indicates that potential difficulties for first-time buyers in the UK are greater, the long-term worth of homes as assets is also likely to be higher.

It also suggests that Spain may be the best long-term bet for those interested in overseas property.

Last week’s figures from Nationwide for house price growth in 2007 put the annual figure slightly higher than the BIS long-term average at 4.2 per cent.

Posted in Facts of Property World | Leave a Comment »

Booming Romanian economy boosts value of UK property company by 25 per cent

Posted by hasnain on 4 February, 2008

Fabian Romania, the AIM listed property company that invests in the Bucharest and Romanian real estate market, is reporting a 25 per cent rise in its net asset value for the full year to December 31 2007 over the previous 12 months.

Fabian generates total returns for shareholders through a portfolio of income-producing buildings, co-development projects and land investments.

The net asset value per share at the end of 2007 was €1.700, an increase of 25.37 per cent for the full year and a 5.79 per cent increase over the third quarter.

The developers profit net asset value (DPNAV) has also grown strongly, up 43 per cent on the previous 12 months.

The company reports only “limited impact” from the sub-prime lending crisis in the United States.

Mark Holdsworth, director of Fabian Romania Ltd, said: “The further East one goes into Europe, the less impact the credit crunch is having.

“In the fourth quarter ongoing growth in office rents and continued residential house price inflation on the back of double digit growth in real disposable incomes, have proven the drivers for an outstanding year for Fabian.”

Mr Holdsworth said the growth in DPNAV was particularly significant. “This is a leading indicator of the positive direction that net asset values will move in and something else for investors to welcome.”

Notes to editors:

Fabian Romania was originally listed on the Bermuda stock exchange in June 2005 at € 1 a share and it subsequently raised €21 million. The company raised a further €40 million through a listing on AIM in December 2006 at €1.35 a share.

The following investors have disclosable holdings in Fabian Romania.
Jupiter: 20 per cent
Griffin Capital: Management: 20 per cent
East Capital: 11 per cent
Invesco Perpetual: 4 per cent
RMB Asset Management: 5 per cent

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Landlords take long-term view

Posted by hasnain on 4 February, 2008

The majority of UK landlords now see their properties as long-term investments, according to Property Hawk.

The majority of UK landlords now see their properties as long-term investments, according to Property Hawk.

The website claims that current market conditions have forced many investors to rethink their future plans.

It means that most now intend to hold onto their properties and wait until market conditions are more favourable before deciding to sell.

“Most landlords, because of the costs of buying and selling now, particularly with stamp duty rates going up, see residential investment as a long-term hold. A lot of landlords buy buy-to-let properties for their pensions,” said Chris Horne, Property Hawk editor.

“You can be looking at spending ten per cent of your capital sum just by buying and selling, so even if maybe most landlords realise that prices are heading downwards, they take a long-term view about it all,” he added.

The Association of Residential Lettings Agents recently revealed that rental yields increased in January.

Posted in UK Market Analysis | Leave a Comment »

Confidence among UK estate agents is beginning to improve, according to research from property portal HotProperty.co.uk.

Posted by hasnain on 4 February, 2008

Amid a gradual decline in average prices in recent months, fears over the future direction of the property market have been on the increase.

However, this trend has now begun to reverse according to the organisation.

The research finds some 72 per cent of estate agents were more confident in the market during January than they were in December.

This compares to only 56 per cent who were optimistic about the future throughout December.

The January figure is also a massive improvement on confidence in November, when just 33 per cent of agents said they were upbeat over future of the market.

“The last few months of 2007 were rocky times for the property market with the global credit crunch and Northern Rock lowering consumer confidence and causing widespread fear,” said Shawn Luetchens, HotProperty managing director.

“Because of this, we entered 2008 cautiously, with everyone expecting the worst.”

Yet, these fears appear to be unfounded at present.

“However as our January index shows, agents are feeling much more confident about the market than they have for the last three months,” continued Mr Luetchens.

“This is possibly a reaction to the influx of New Year buyers on the market, but also because, although the market is slower and house price growth is down, overall it is reasonably steady.”

http://www.aboutproperty.co.uk/news/buying-and-selling-property/confidence-on-up-in-uk-property-market-$485235.htm

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Tips for buying property in France…Jessica Bown

Posted by hasnain on 4 February, 2008

MOVING to France is, in very many ways, a joy. French bureaucracy, on the other hand, isn’t. They invented the word, so they probably feel they have a reputation to uphold.

Even buying a secondhand car means filling out numerous forms and registering the change of ownership with the local council, so I’m not looking forward to all the red tape that comes with entering the property market.

Estate agent and legal fees can add up to 20% to the cost of buying a house or flat, compared with about 10% in Spain and 5% in Britain.

Anyone considering buying a property abroad should therefore be sure to ask whether the asking price includes commission and legal fees and how much they will be charged on top if not.

That is why I am doing as much as possible to keep costs down by getting to know the locals. Pascal, who runs a bar and restaurant in the middle of the village where I am buying, knows pretty much everything about everyone who lives there.

Since discovering my plans, he has proved an invaluable source of phone numbers for people who are selling or thinking of selling in the area. And if I do go for one of these private sales, I will save 6% or more in agents’ fees.

I am torn between a lovely two-bed being sold privately by a friend of Pascal’s, and the property I previously had my eye on, which is for sale through a local agent. The fees could well be the deciding factor.

Notaire’s fees, on the other hand, are impossible to avoid. These generally add up to 10% to the cost of buying and comprise the various local and government taxes. These include the French version of stamp duty, the top 19.6% rate which makes even UK stamp duty seem reasonable – though those buying run-down buildings to renovate pay less than half that.

One difference between a notaire and a lawyer or conveyancer in Britain is that notaires represent the state, and it is not unusual for the vendor and purchaser to have the same notaire.

You should not be asked for any commission or fees before the end of the seven-day cool-ing-off period that follows the signing of the compromis de vente, or contract between the buyer and seller – and even then you should only pay a deposit.

Taking out a mortgage to finance your purchase will increase the amount you have to pay a notaire because of the extra work they will have to undertake.

A number of UK lenders offer mortgages for people wanting to buy overseas. Banks that will lend against overseas properties include Halifax and Woolwich, as well as Leeds building society.

The other option is to borrow from a bank in the country where you want to buy.

Requirements for taking out a mortgage in another country can be more stringent than those in Britain, even in these times of market turbulence.

In France, for example, the payments must not exceed 33% of the single or joint incomes of those buying – and the French banks do require proof of earnings from both the employed and self-employed, just as they do in Britain.

Most French lenders also require a large deposit of, say, 15% or more of the purchase price.

Interest rates are generally lower here than in the UK. One friend is paying a fixed rate of just 4.5% to his French bank.

Of course, if you are selling up in Britain for a lot more than you are paying in France, buying without a mortgage remains the first choice.

I’m certainly intending to buy outright with the proceeds from my house in London – though I’m hoping that sale goes through before the much-touted UK slowdown really takes hold.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/money/property_and_mortgages/article3294106.ece

Posted in Food for Thought | 3 Comments »

Berlin edges towards property boom second time round

Posted by hasnain on 4 February, 2008

Some of the cheapest housing of any major European city is attracting a wave of foreign buyers to the German capital, promising a new property boom after a false start after the fall of the Berlin Wall nearly 20 years ago.Buyers from Britain, Scandinavia, Ireland and the United States are leading the rush to snap up flats in the once-divided city, making the 12 months up to November last year the busiest on the property market since World War II, estate agents say.

Foreigners were responsible for 70 percent of the transactions, the German federation of estate agents said, with Danes spearheading the march. The interest is so high that Danish estate agents have opened offices here.

One Danish agent, Esben Tjalvi, said Danes found the prices too good to resist.

“At 1,500 to 2,000 euros (2,200 dollars to 2,950 dollars) per square metre, it’s up to four times cheaper than in Copenhagen and Stockholm,” Tjalvi said.

“People are buying what they can’t afford at home.”

But private buyers alone do not account for the eye-popping 28-percent rise in turnover in the first half of 2007 — that is thanks to the muscular presence of investment funds, once a rare feature in the Berlin property market, that are snapping up dozens of apartment blocks.

Cerberus Capital Management and Goldman Sachs’ Whitehall fund have invested 2.1 billion euros since 2004.

“In Berlin, the price per square metre is one of the cheapest of any major city in Europe, including those in eastern Europe,” said Andrea Magnoni, the Italian co-founder of the Valore fund.

“The return for investors is higher than anywhere else at between seven and eight percent compared to 3.5 percent in Milan because even if the rents are moderate the purchase prices are always low enough to guarantee a good rate.”

Investors are speculating on rents rising.

“In the rest of Europe, 50 to 60 percent of people’s salaries goes towards rent. In Germany, it is about 20 percent,” Magnoni said.

The influx of investors to Berlin is having a marked effect on the landscape of the city.

Whole streets are being renovated without the city authorities having to dig into their already massively stretched finances. The decrepit flats with coal-fired heating and toilets on the landing are disappearing and new shops are opening where they were once rare.

This in turn is creating jobs, not only in the property sector but also in the building trade.

But Berliners fear that the property boom is threatening to change the character of a city that has always had a more alternative feel than its German, and many of its European, counterparts.

The once rare occurrence of tenants forced to leave so that the owner can raise rents is now becoming more common, some say.

And new luxury blocks of flats are mushrooming on the choicest roads, with prices well beyond the reach of most residents in a city where 11 percent of the population is unemployed and thousands of students and hard-up artists make their home.

Investors would also do well to remember that many people lost heavily after betting on sharp price rises after the Berlin Wall came down and communist rule disintegrated in 1989. In fact, prices fell.

Andrea Magnoni says investors back then were motivated by the promise of big tax breaks instead of solid economic reasons.

“But today the market is underpinned by genuine economic growth,” he said.

Posted in UK Market Analysis | Leave a Comment »

Zero growth expected this year in commercial property market

Posted by hasnain on 4 February, 2008

Investors are being warned to expect 0% return from the commercial property market in Scotland this year.

An assessment carried out by consultants, Drivers Jonas, shows the market has reversed since January last year with supply outstripping demand. Just last year, there were 10 buyers for every one property on the market whereas there are now 10 sellers for every purchaser.

Together with the impact of the credit squeeze, this will make it extremely challenging for developers, funds and other investors to achieve positive returns this year.

Drivers Jonas has long since argued that 10 years of accelerated growth has ended confirming their earlier suspicions. Experts are warning that the market has reached its peak and is now headed in a downwards spiral that is set to continue over the next year or so.

Andrew Kubski of Drivers Jonas said anyone who is playing in the market currently will know there’s completely negative turnaround. The slowdown, caused by the US sub-prime mortgage crisis, has already triggered a significant fall in prices.

Anthony Duggan of Drivers Jonas said the sub-prime mortgage crisis slammed the brakes on the UK property market predicting a 0% total return for 2009 said Mr Duggan.

The prediction will be a concern to life companies which have recently been forced to impose restrictions on withdrawals from commercial property-linked life and pension funds.

Investors have been rushing to rescue their money as returns fell from double digit gains into negative at the end of 2007, causing liquidity problems. Last week, Axa became the latest company to impose a freeze as it reported a ‘significant increase’ in withdrawals. A 6-month ban on withdrawals has been imposed from its £2.1 billion portfolio.

This followed earlier moves by Scottish Widows and Aegon-owned Scottish Equitable, which introduced deferment periods of up to 6 and 12 months respectively.

However, the research from Drivers Jonas does provide some relief for investors as the firm anticipates that this year’s slowdown won’t reach the same crisis levels as the early 1990s, when the sector was heavily affected by recession.

Mr Duggan concluded that this is a very different market, demand is going to weaken but we expect rents to remain under control.

Posted in UK Market Analysis | Leave a Comment »

Property derivatives market soars

Posted by hasnain on 4 February, 2008

According to Investment Property Databank and the Investment Property Forum this morning, the number of IPD Index-based property derivatives traded in the final quarter of last year set a quarterly record.

There were 236 trades, up from 137 in the previous quarter, and easily eclipsing the previous record of 164 trades made in the first quarter of last year.

The total amount IPD Index property derivatives traded now stands at £13.3bn. The IPD UK Annual Property Index continues to be the index underlying the majority of trades, but trading on the IPD French Annual Property Index saw continued growth last year.

Ian Cullen, co-founder of IPD and its head of Ssystems and information standards believes the figures indicate a broadening in the property derivatives’ market’s appeal: ‘The rapid fall in commercial property returns over the past six months has awakened broad interest in property derivatives as a means of better managing property exposure in difficult market circumstances,’ he said.

‘The increase in the number of trades in the fourth quarter, which pushes the total number over the 1,000 mark since December 2004, indicates that this interest is now being translated into action.’

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More proof property rents and yields are rising

Posted by hasnain on 4 February, 2008

Front page news in the FT this weekend – more evidence of an incredibly strong rental market in London and as we have already seen in Paragon rental survey data this is spreading to the rest of the country – good news for property investors.

We stand by our analysis of the detail in various letting surveys recently (including RICS and Paragon) giving strong reason to believe that strong growth in rents will be continued this year – Liam Bailey at Knight Frank thinks rents will rise just 4-5% this year compared to 15% last year – he will probably be proved wrong to a significant degree – we reckon that RICS and Paragon rental surveys will show 2008 had a national average 10%+ rental growth this year.

At risk of being accused of trying to start a public ‘cartel’ – now is the time for all of us to raise rents and to raise them strongly – take advantage of the sales market weakness, the greater numbers looking to rent rather than buy and the rental part of the property cycle and increase your rents at least 10% this year. Letting agents won’t do it for you as they are generally not very pro-active – do your research, call them and ask them to raise where possible. If you get a tenancy change try pushing your rents up hard otherwise agree lesser growth in return for an existing tenant staying on in the property or a new tenant taking a longer tenancy – either way will reduce your voids for the year and again increase your property investment net yield.

Stuart Law

http://news.assetz.co.uk/articles/4000.html

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