According to the Halifax HPI, here are the figures for the top and bottom of the housing crash for the UK as a whole:
| High/Low |
House price (£) |
| Q2 1989 |
69,850 |
| Q3 1995 |
61,115 |
| Difference (£) |
-8,735 |
| Change (%) |
-12.5 |
Therefore, in the 6¼ years between mid-1989 and the end of September 1995, the average UK property lost an eighth (12.5%) of its value. However, most of this fall occurred from 1989 to 1992. House prices then drifted up and down during 1993 to 1995 before setting out on a twelve-year winning streak.
So, that’s the situation for the United Kingdom as a whole. Now let’s find the individual peaks and troughs for each of the UK’s twelve regions (in alphabetical order):
East Anglia
| High/Low |
House price (£) |
| Q4 1988 |
86,493 |
| Q1 1993 |
57,200 |
| Difference (£) |
-29,293 |
| Change (%) |
-33.9 |
As you can see, the property market peaked earlier in East Anglia than it did in the UK as a whole, and prices started to recover much earlier, hitting a low in early 1993. However, the plunge was much more painful in the fens, with prices dropping by more than a third in 4¼ years. Ouch!
East Midlands
| High/Low |
House price (£) |
| Q2 1989 |
65,862 |
| Q3 1995 |
52,618 |
| Difference (£) |
-13,244 |
| Change (%) |
-20.1 |
The East Midlands peaked and bottomed out at the same points as the UK as a whole, but the decline was steeper at a fifth (20%). Thus, homebuyers in this region suffered a bit more than those in the UK generally.
Greater London
| High/Low |
House price (£) |
| Q4 1988 |
105,234 |
| Q1 1993 |
75,832 |
| Difference (£) |
-29,402 |
| Change (%) |
-27.9 |
London peaked six months earlier than the rest of the UK and began its recovery in early 1993 – 2½ years ahead of the rest of the UK. Today, many people view London as a housing ‘fortress’ which will avoid much of the pain to come. Alas, history tells a different story, with a peak-to-trough loss of 28% in just 4¼ years. Yikes!
Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland is an interesting case, as it largely avoided the boom and bust experience elsewhere. This is in part thanks to its geographical separation from the rest of the UK, and partly due to the political and social situation that existed before ‘The Troubles’ ended. Indeed, apart from a 0.9% drop in 1989 and a 2.5% fall in 1992, NI property prices have risen every year since 1984.
Amazingly, the average property in the Six Counties is now valued at £216,255, compared to £197,071 for the rest of the (much higher-earning) UK. Thus, in my view, the housing bubble in NI is under the greatest pressure and will burst spectacularly. The outcome will be far from pretty!
North West
| High/Low |
House price (£) |
| Q2 1991 |
60,787 |
| Q4 1995 |
52,158 |
| Difference (£) |
-8,629 |
| Change (%) |
-14.2 |
Property prices in the North West peaked much later, with the top arriving two years after the UK peak. Then again, they began recovering at roughly the same time. However, NW prices dropped slightly more than the UK as a whole, down a seventh (14%) over 4½ years.
North
| High/Low |
House price (£) |
| Q4 1991 |
54,968 |
| Q3 1995 |
48,750 |
| Difference (£) |
-6,218 |
| Change (%) |
-11.3 |
The North did rather well in the last property downturn, with the average price peaking much later at the end of 1991. However, prices started rising in Q3 1995, in line with the rest of the UK. Thanks to its shorter ‘property recession’, prices in the North declined a mere ninth (11%) during its setback. That’s a slight improvement on the UK in general.
For the record, here’s how the average price fell over the entire nation:
| High/Low |
House price (£) |
| Q2 1989 |
69,850 |
| Q3 1995 |
61,115 |
| Difference (£) |
-8,735 |
| Change (%) |
-12.5 |
Now let’s look at the highs and lows of the remaining six regions:
South East
| High/Low |
House price (£) |
| Q1 1989 |
106,179 |
| Q4 1992 |
73,556 |
| Difference (£) |
-32,623 |
| Change (%) |
-30.7 |
It may come as a surprise to many people in the affluent South East just how steeply prices fell in the last bust. In under four years, prices dropped by more than three-tenths (31%), plunging many homeowners into negative equity (when a property is worth less than the mortgage secured on it). So much for the South East being a safe haven when times are tough!
South West
| High/Low |
House price (£) |
| Q1 1989 |
85,634 |
| Q4 1992 |
60,522 |
| Difference (£) |
-25,112 |
| Change (%) |
-29.3 |
The South West followed an identical path to its neighbour the South East, peaking in early 1989 and bottoming out at the end of 1992. However, house prices fell slightly less in percentage terms, but were still down nearly three-tenths (29%) in the Nineties collapse.
Scotland
Like Northern Ireland, Scotland pretty much avoided the last property plunge. Sure, prices wobbled about a bit throughout the Nineties, but the trend never headed resolutely downwards. For the record, prices declined as follows:
| Year |
Annual
decline (%) |
| 1992 |
-3.0 |
| 1994 |
-0.1 |
| 1997 |
-2.1 |
| 2000 |
-4.3 |
So, Scots managed to avoid the worst of the UK property depression, but this may not happen again this time around.
West Midlands
| High/Low |
House price (£) |
| Q2 1989 |
68,931 |
| Q2 1995 |
60,441 |
| Difference (£) |
-8,490 |
| Change (%) |
-12.3 |
Of all the regions of the UK, the West Midlands most closely reflects the results for the property market as a whole. Prices fell closely in line with the UK average, making this region perhaps the most ‘average’ of all during the last crash.
Wales
| High/Low |
House price (£) |
| Q1 1990 |
57,453 |
| Q2 1995 |
49,674 |
| Difference (£) |
-7,779 |
| Change (%) |
-13.5 |
Prices didn’t peak in Wales until Spring 1990, and then fell slightly more than the UK as a whole until they began to recover in late 1995. There’s nothing remarkable to report here.
Yorkshire & Humberside
| High/Low |
House price (£) |
| Q1 1991 |
55,928 |
| Q3 1995 |
50,249 |
| Difference (£) |
-5,679 |
| Change (%) |
-10.2 |
Lastly, we come to the twelfth of our regions. Yorkshire folk have a well-deserved reputation for financial prudence. This may explains why Y&H it performed much better than any other English region, with prices declining by little more than a tenth (10%).
So, what conclusions can we draw from the above data? All it tells us is that the UK is far from being a single, homogeneous housing market. Regional differences will always prevail, because housing markets are primarily local beasts. Furthermore, this look back at the past doesn’t help us to forecast the future. Then again, as Mark Twain is said to have remarked,
“History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.”